HOW’S THE MARKET (REALLY)?
FIVE IMPORTANT CHARTS
In January 2022, rates began a sharper-than-usual increase from extremely low levels, caused primarily by inflation. The unusual combination of pace and level of increase created a handcuffing effect for many move-up buyers.
Affordability issues have been fueled by low inventory, higher rates, and rapid price appreciation.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is a widely followed measure of U.S. home prices. It now stands at an all-time high.
Existing home sales remain lower than normal due to the combination of low affordability, low inventory, higher rates, and rapid price appreciation.
National inventory levels have remained low for the reasons above, but are beginning to increase year over year.
LOCAL COUNTY INVENTORY DATA
A healthy, balanced market has between five and six months of inventory.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
What does all of this mean for the market?
As we move into the summer and fall, two indicators will guide the housing market’s direction:
10‑Year Treasury Yield
< 4.5%: mortgage rates stay lower, supporting demand.
4.5–5%: a “hold-steady” zone.
> 5%: could choke off affordability and stall sales.
Local Inventory
5–6 months’ supply = balanced.
Rising supply = softening; shrinking supply = sellers’ market.
Why This Matters
Mortgage rate sensitivity: even small bond yield increases translate directly into rate hikes, affecting buyers’ monthly payments.
Inventory balance: influences negotiation power, pricing trends, and time-on-market.